Was ist eigentlich in Kasachstan los?

Uranium interests of the USA, Russia, China in the context of the destabilization in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is the leader in uranium mining in the world and this determines the interest of the great powers in its fate.by NATALIA GLOBA

Events in Kazakhstan are extremely difficult to understand. The whole tangle of players, problems and contradictions is like a multidimensional space with unstable, curvilinear and only partially deterministic coordinate planes. However, there are several main aspects. They are similar to coordinate planes in multidimensional spaces. The projections of events onto them are considered by numerous analysts. But projections in multidimensional space give little for understanding the overall picture, just like the projection of a cylinder onto a plane in the form of a circle or rectangle is terribly far from the three-dimensional image of an object.
However, there is no other way to study an object than by measuring its components in any coordinate system. Therefore, the efforts of analysts are reduced to the construction of a more or less correct coordinate system and a method of measurement in it. As a rule, considerations are expressed in the following coordinates:

• The geopolitical role of Kazakhstan in the US-Russia-China triangle and the possibility of its absorption by one or several players.
• Place of Kazakhstan in the world economy and economic interests of geopolitical players.
• Institutional matrix of Kazakhstan as a basis for predicting future events and opportunities for players (the role of pre-feudal zhuzes in politics and governance). The prospect of a split of the state into several state formations.
• Cultural and religious matrix of the Kazakh people and the prospect of Islamization.

In this article, I propose to look at another coordinate plane - Kazakhstan's place in the upcoming "green transition" of humanity .
Kazakhstan is rich in raw materials . A third of the country's GDP comes from oil, gas, gold, chromium, manganese, copper, molybdenum and much more. And also uranium. And although in monetary terms, the extraction and primary processing of uranium ore does not give very much - only 1.7 billion dollars, this industry is strategically important. Kazakhstan holds 42% of the world uranium market, and its possible transfer to the control of Russia (5% of the world market) will radically change Russia's place in the world production of energy resources of the future.

[Blockierte Grafik: https://ukrainianpost.com/crops/07a418/471x0/1/0/2022/01/10/q18HcDqbLdeVAXa545i5LupuJyPTesXBkT3z2aSb.jpg]

Share of countries in world uranium mining. Kazakhstan is the absolute leader with more than 40%
Kazakhstani uranium has several features. First of all, the deposits are concentrated in only three regions (see the map of the producing areas).

[Blockierte Grafik: https://ukrainianpost.com/crops/4af33b/471x0/1/0/2022/01/10/FtWNxPADvXVPwl9adGNgKjwWmguRyaDOo82XaKGR.jpg]

Uranium mining regions in Kazakhstan
Now let's compare this map with the map of the control of the country's territories by three zhuzes - historical clans that ruled the Kazakh people for centuries, despite the fact that the territories were part of the Russian Empire, the USSR, or independent Kazakhstan. The overlapping of these two maps shows that the overwhelming majority of the deposits are located in the territories controlled by the Senior Zhus, to which Nursultan Nazarbayev belongs. In fact, this clan controls the entire uranium industry.

[Blockierte Grafik: https://ukrainianpost.com/crops/275c31/471x0/1/0/2022/01/10/70spobKtYNtHyjh3N2tjZqRD292BALIIXN4vOzRH.jpg]

Kazakh Zhuzes

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Kazakh Zhuzes
A feature of uranium deposits in Kazakhstan is the widespread possibility of mining by in-situ leaching of ore, which radically reduces the cost of production. Many deposits are located at shallow depths (400-500 m) and are covered with soft rocks.
The cost of producing uranium raw materials in Kazakhstan does not exceed 34 USD/kg, and at current world prices of 110 USD/kg, the industry has excellent prospects. Under the USSR, uranium concentrate was processed in Kyrgyzstan into uranium nitrous oxide and sent to Russia. For 30 years of independence, Nazarbayev was able to significantly modernize the industry and make it independent from Russia through the creation of joint ventures and foreign investments. In 2005, the Suzak District of South Kazakhstan Oblast (Muyunkum Desert), a new uranium processing plant was opened (with a capacity of 3200 t/y; with such a productivity, reserves will last for 400 years).
The United States showed interest in the extraction and processing of Kazakh uranium in the 2000s. This is not surprising, since the United States is the largest buyer of uranium in the world (27%). And although the United States has enough raw materials that they receive from Canada and Australia, they cannot ignore Kazakh uranium. Interesting facts and in many ways indicative, comw from Yulia Latynina. I will give her full quote:
“Or 2005 is a wonderful story. Former US President Bill Clinton arrives in Kazakhstan and takes with him a Canadian businessman named Frank Giustra. And what do you think? They talked with Nazarbayev, after which Nazarbayev sells a package of state uranium to Giustra, which makes his company - it is called Uranium One - the first uranium company, number one in the world. What does Clinton get? You will laugh, he receives $ 31 million in his fund account. And after that, Uranium One sells 20% of its stake to Rosatom. Once again, the deal is approved by a man named Clinton, this time Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. And the Clinton Foundation - Surprise-Surprise! - again receives various contributions from Uranium shareholders. For example, 5.6 million dollars from Jan Telfer, a shareholder."
Nice story, isn't it? (And they will teach us how to fight corruption?)
And what about China? What are their interests in this topic? China has no interests in Kazakhstani uranium. During the years of his rule, Nazarbayev never allowed his great neighbor to the uranium pie. Experiencing an acute shortage of nuclear fuel, China has made a bet on replacing uranium with thorium and is preparing to launch the world's first nuclear thorium reactor.
Why do I think that the uranium topic is extremely important when considering current events in Kazakhstan? Because humanity is on the verge of a "green transition", and the role of nuclear energy in it is a key.
By the end of 2021, energy experts agreed that the role and potential of renewable energy in the global energy mix was somewhat overestimated. And since nuclear energy does not produce a lot of hydrocarbon emissions, many countries are in favor of revising its role in the future energy balance. A number of EU countries (France, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Slovakia, Croatia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary) have come up with an initiative before the European Commission to include nuclear energy in the list of green industries (in the European taxonomy) by the end of 2021. It is very likely that this issue will be resolved positively. Moreover, during the transition period (until 2050), this sector will play a key role in greening the world economy. And control over raw materials is of great importance in the future alignment of forces on the world stage. Numerous foresights of the world economy show the most important trend of world events in the near future - the global battle for resources, namely land, water and energy. I am afraid that in Kazakhstan we are now witnessing an episode of a battle for the energy of the future.
The aggregate of Kazakhstani and Russian shares in the uranium market is close to 50%. If Russia wants to gain control over Kazakhstan's uranium as a "prize", it will sharply strengthen its position in the world balance of energy production. This development of events is dangerous for everyone.
In my opinion, the development of events in Kazakhstan may follow one of the following scenarios:
1. Restoration of the sovereignty of Kazakhstan. It cannot be fully restored; to one degree or another, the power in the state will depend on Russia. It is unlikely that Russia will refuse such a success - the possibility of including Kazakhstan in its orbit. In this case, it will inevitably put the uranium industry under its control. At the same time, a dictatorship of the most rude Asian kind, in fact, a despotism, will most likely be established in Kazakhstan. Thousands of prisoners will be sent to uranium mines as free labor, making the uranium business even more attractive.
2. Protracted civil war. One of the main demands of the recent protests was the granting of equal participation of the zhuzes in governing the country. All power under Nazarbayev belonged to the Senior Zhuz. The Juinor zhuz was especially unhappy with this state of affairs. The age-old contradictions between these medieval clans are insoluble. For many centuries, the zhuzes were unable to create their own states, or find peace among themselves. Add to this the fact that institutionally Kazakh clans are not even feudal formations, but pre-feudal proto-states. The transition from feudal communities to capitalism is painful, but possible. The leap from a pre-feudal society with common clan property to capitalism with full private property has not yet been seen in history.
The contradictions between the clans can become the basis for a protracted civil war. And since there are not two clans, but three, since in the event of a war, radical Islam will also appear on the scene, Russia will plunge not into a second Afghanistan, but to a second Syria. In this case, the fate of uranium mines is very problematic. Now most of them are on the territory of the Senior Zhuz and are controlled by the Nazarbayev family. If radical Islam comes from the south, this order can be easily destroyed. The consequences of establishing control over the mining and production of uranium oxide by the Islamists can be catastrophic. In this case, the collective West will be forced to intervene despite Russia's opposition.
3. The collapse of Kazakhstan. Possible as a result of agreements between the zhuzes and as a result of the civil war. In this scenario, Russia will bite off the Russian-speaking Northern Kazakhstan from the Middle Zhuz and begin to negotiate for Baikonur. The remaining territory will be divided between the zhuzes. Most of the uranium mines will go to the Senior Zhuz, that is, the Nazarbayev family. It is unlikely that Russia will be able to establish control over them.
Thus, Russia is satisfied with only the first scenario, the West - only the third, the Islamists - the second, China - like Russia, the first.
We will soon find out what scenario will take place in reality. There are too many variables to try to predict Asian processes. This is a view of the multidimensional reality of Kazakhstan from the plane of the "green transition". And there are many such coordinate planes in this story.

https://ukrainianpost.com/poli…abilization-in-kazakhstan

bg bh

https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/20…schversuch-in-kasachstan/

Zitat von Polkrich

https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/20…schversuch-in-kasachstan/

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/po…nion-article23049812.html

https://www.welt.de/politik/au…m-das-Chaos-ausbrach.html

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Ru…enze-article23049949.html

... ist das Thema schon durch?

Zitat

.. ist das Thema schon durch?

Ist man hierzulande nicht gewohnt, dass Dinge wenns sein muss auch schnell geregelt werden können.

In 2 Wochen sind "Migrations und Flüchtlingskrise" beendet wenn man wirklich will. Kein Problem und kost nicht viel.

Die Lage beruhigt sich, die OVKS-Friedenstruppen sollen Kasachstan schon in zehn Tagen verlassen

Die Unruhen in Kasachstan sind vorbei, im Land ist wieder weitgehend Ruhe eingekehrt, in Almaty wurden sein 24 Stunden keine Schießereien mehr gehört. Die Friedenstruppen der OVKS haben an den Kampfhandlungen anscheinend nicht teilgenommen, ihre Aufgabe war es vielmehr, strategische Objekte zu bewachen und so kasachische Sicherheitskräfte freizustellen, die gegen die Extremisten gekämpft haben. Nun wurde mitgeteilt, dass die internationalen Friedenstruppen schon in wenigen Tagen die Heimreise antreten werden.

Seit paar Tagen sind in den Foren wo ich mich im Sache Kasachstan informiere Meldungen von Leuten vor Ort nicht mehr zugelassen, nur noch Meldungen aus Presse, das ist unüblich und verdächtig, da gibt es wohl einiges was nicht ins Öffentlichkeit kommen soll.

Zitat von PatroneLupo

..und der Erduwahn...der hat natürlich seine Drecksgriffel da drin

der macht mir am meisten Sorgen:

dass der Ziegenf***** wenn er mit dem Rücken an der Wand steht eine Lawine lostritt, die außer Kontrolle gerät
(was ich mir bei Putin z.B. nicht vorstellen kann!)

Zitat von Seeadler

Allerdings dürfte der "Ziegenf*****" in seinen Entscheidungen nicht völlig autark sein, auch in dieser Hinsicht dürfte er dem größten Feldherrn aller Zeiten ähneln ...

warum "nicht völlig autark"?

der GröFaZ hat sich in seinen Entscheidungen weder um das Wohl des von ihm ge- bzw. verführten Landes/Volkes noch darum geschert, was ihm den Boden für einen komfortablen Lebensabend bereitet

Es hat sich seit eh und je nichts verändert, ohne fressen, trinken, bekleidung, technische hilfsmittel und alla alla wichtigste Energie! Kein Krieg, ohne Saft geht nichts, die aufgeblasene Puppen im DC und Brüssel werden in der Sekunde wo der erste Schuß fällt nichts mehr zu sagen haben, denn es wird nicht mehr geblubert sondern gekämpft, ein Su 35 kann man nicht mit gender gebluber runterhollen.

Zitat von Seeadler

Allerdings dürfte der "Ziegenf*****" in seinen Entscheidungen nicht völlig autark sein, auch in dieser Hinsicht dürfte er dem größten Feldherrn aller Zeiten ähneln ...

Hm, dass Adi mit Ziegen rumgemacht hat ist mir neu.
Der hatte seine Eva und Deutschland.
Was immer wieder vergessen wird, Frankreich und England haben dem Reich den Krieg erklärt.
Das ist bis heute so geblieben, von wegen Freundschaft. Die is nich, auch wenn die Handlanger der Unterdrücker in den Parlamenten das so behaupten.
Nur solange D-Land spurt ist Ruhe.
N.

Zitat von Nachtwächter

Hm, dass Adi mit Ziegen rumgemacht hat ist mir neu.Der hatte seine Eva und Deutschland.
Was immer wieder vergessen wird, Frankreich und England haben dem Reich den Krieg erklärt.
Das ist bis heute so geblieben, von wegen Freundschaft. Die is nich, auch wenn die Handlanger der Unterdrücker in den Parlamenten das so behaupten.
Nur solange D-Land spurt ist Ruhe.
N.

Das und alleine das ist Grund das EU heute besteht, aus Deutschland wird lebenssaft ausgesaugt und in Rest der Siegerländer und Schmarotzer verteilt, es ist ein gefrorenes Konflikt, nur langsam aber sicher versiegt der Saft aus Deutschland, deswegen hat sich GB auch verpisst aus der EU, die gehen schon malauf Abstand aber belassen die Soldaten hier, deswegen wird die Elite hier Leute nur noch mit Maulkorb rumlaufen lassen, ah, das ist undankbare Thema, bin kein Deutscher muss aber immer wieder sagen das Deutsche Volk in der EU nichts zum lachen hat, das ist ein Bunte Caffe Viereck in dem kleine DE Malocher den Wohlstand für seine Kumpels hart erarbeiten muss und ein wenig davon für sich behalten darf. EU Beitritt war noch eine Deutsche Niederlage.

Lukas das hast Du richtig erkannt und beschrieben.
Vermutlich muß man Nichtdeutscher sein, um das ganze Elend zu überblicken und einzuordnen.
Gruß
Nachtwächter

Zitat von Kinderkram

aber vielleicht mit bibel-sprüchen

Da gebe ich dir recht aber so ein Spruch kann schon eine Gewisse Motivation vermitteln:

14. И кад он дође до Лехије, Филистеји га сретоше вичући од радости; а Дух Господњи сиђе на њ, и ужа на рукама његовим посташе као конци изгорели од ватре, и спадоше свезе с руку његових.

15. И он нађе чељуст магарећу још сирову, и пруживши руку своју узе је, и поби њом хиљаду људи.

16. Потом рече Самсон: Чељушћу магарећом једну гомилу, две гомиле, чељушћу магарећом побих хиљаду људи.

17. А кад изрече, баци чељуст из руке своје, и назва оно место Рамат-Лехија.

18. И беше жедан јако, те завапи ка Господу и рече: Ти си учинио руком слуге свог ово избављење велико; а сад хоћу ли умрети од жеђи, или ћу пасти у руке необрезанима?

19. Тада Бог расцепи стену у Лехији, и потече вода из ње, те се напи, и поврати му се дух и оживе. Зато се прозва онај извор Ен-Акоре, који је у Лехији до данашњег дана.

20. И би судија Израиљу за времена филистејског двадесет година.

https://www.stepbible.org/?q=version=MapM|reference=Judg.15

Zitat von Nachtwächter

Vermutlich muß man Nichtdeutscher sein, um das ganze Elend zu überblicken und einzuordnen.